Although it’s not set in stone as the fifth starter is to be determined, enough is in place that we can start to check out what the 2009 rotation is going to look like. I don’t really believe in assigning numbers as an indicator of quality, especially given what the Yankees are going to have this year but it does give the general order of things so that’s that. This version assumes that Andy Pettitte returns:
SP1 – CC Sabathia
SP2 – AJ Burnett
SP3 – Chien-Ming Wang
SP4 – Andy Pettitte
SP5 – Joba Chamberlain
This rotation has at least two guys as guaranteed as you can be to hit 200 innings in Wang and Pettitte. I’m a little wary of saying it for Sabathia because of the abuse he’s taken the last two years (though unlike Tim Lincecum he generally did not hit crazy pitchcounts) and his body type (David Wells but taller). I’ve slotted Joba in at #5 because of innings only. Your top starters in the rotation always get the most innings, and because of his limit he probably fits best at the fifth position. This will keep him in the rotation as long as possible and also give him all the innings that he’ll need to hit that limit. Hitting the limit is important, as doing so will up it for the next year.
We should assume that AJ Burnett will be hurt at some point during the year, either needing rest or some skipped starts and that Joba will either hit his limit, need a rest or get hurt again (hopefully that last one won’t happen!). The Yankees do have depth here to pick up these starts from Alfredo Aceves, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Aceves is probably the most likely go-to candidate as he is a finished product while they’ve got the other two working on things.
Even given these two points, this is a very strong rotation and the best that the Yankees have had since 2003 by far, plus even if Pettitte is a bit under average again he will not be as bad as Jeff Weaver. Other than that, you’ve got four above-average to awesome pitchers plus some very good fillins.
Here’s my guess at what it looks like without Pettitte’s return or the signing of an averageish veteran pitcher. I don’t think anyone very attractive is available right now who the Yankees haven’t signed, and I don’t think they’d be willing to trade for one so my assumption is it’s Pettitte or nothing.
SP1 – CC Sabathia
SP2 – AJ Burnett
SP3 – Chien-Ming Wang
SP4 – Joba Chamberlain
SP5 – Alfredo Aceves
Again, I don’t think that Aceves is really a good option just the most likely. Hughes has two pitches that he is working on getting down (his Cutter and Changeup) and does not have a fastball like Joba Chamberlain so I think it’s best for his development if he at least starts out at AAA for the year. Plus, he has to prove that he can stay healthy for a while. The team has been having Kennedy work on getting a better feel for his curveball and until (unless?) he gets that down and gets his head really together he’ll just get eaten alive by opposing teams. So Aceves, who is as complete as he is ever going to be, and does not have an innings limit is the “best” option.
My other concern with this rotation is one of innings, I’m not sure where the innings are going to be coming from here. In this rotation, if CC isn’t able to get 200 innings and Burnett only puts in the 160 I expect him to it’s much more of a crisis. Plus, I am just working under the assumption that Wang will be back like nothing bad ever happened. While the Yankees won’t be signing Sidney Ponson again unless much more goes wrong, the kids will be getting a lot more innings than expected. This could be okay, this could be terrible and it doesn’t make me feel very comfortable (but I am very paranoid).
I’ve seen some rumbling that Brian Sabean is looking to trade Jonathan Sanchez for a bat with the signing of Randy Johnson, and that Matsui-for-Sanchez might be an option. I don’t like this option however as it hurts the Yankees offense (if Matsui is healthy enough to play 60% of the year you get a great return at the very least OBP wise) and I don’t think Sanchez is better than Aceves/Hughes/Kennedy in the rotation.
