JANUARY 4th UPDATE: Beyond the votes to everyone’s articles and blog posts (and whatever that is Murray Chass has since it’s not a blog), I have put together a spreadsheet of all this information which you can find here. The Chicago guys are the biggest contingent so far and they all really love Andre Dawson which I hope is not universal!
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The ballots from writers who have a Hall of Fame vote are due today (Dec 31). A few months ago I made myself a few custom RSS feeds with Google to keep track of missives, ponderings and eventually the votes from writers. Here’s who I’ve rounded up (not as many as I hoped, but perhaps more will appear in the next few days):
TR Sullivan’s initial thinking (old writeup, might have changed his mind–he even says so in there): Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Andre Dawson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice and Tim Raines. On the fence about Bert Blyleven (using the conventional stats like 20 win seasons us nerds in their mother’s basements hate).
Sean Hogan of the Myrtle Beach Sun News: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice. Apparently last year he didn’t vote for Blyleven, so that’s one vote closer to induction for him. Here’s what he had to say:
Why did I have a change of heart on Blyleven?
Well, my whole thinking on the Hall of Fame voting has never really been about the numbers. Oh, there are some obvious ones I look at closely, particularly for pitchers.
I like to see a career of excellence over a long period. I’m more interested in winning percentage than just wins.
Blyleven’s winning percentage of .534 (287-250) certainly isn’t staggering, but that is against the backdrop of a 22-year career and more than a few bad Twins teams.
I put more stock in the number of starts a pitcher makes and the number of innings he pitches because those, particularly over a long career, show a pitcher’s true value through the ability to consistently take the ball and pitch deeply enough into a game to give his team a chance to win.
And there, Blyleven has the goods.
He ranks 11th on the all-time list for starts (685) and 14th in innings pitched (4,969 1/3). He had 16 seasons with 200-plus innings and ranks ninth in shutouts (60) after leading the American League three times in the stat.
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star Ledger: Rickey Henderson, Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines and Jack Morris. Calls Jack Morris “A true No. 1 starter throughout his career” which is hilarious.
John Perrotto of the Beaver County Times & Allegheny Times: Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, David Cone, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Mark McGwire, Dave Parker and Tim Raines. That’s a big ballot with some odd choices–it’s worth noting Perrotto writes for Baseball Prospectus as well.
Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Tim Raines and Alan Trammell.
Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News: Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven.
It’s good to see Blyleven’s name all over, not so good to see Rice’s. If you have anyone to add, shout at me and I’ll put them in this post.
January 1 Update
Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News: Rickey Henderson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Jack Morris.
January 3 Update
Ken Davidoff of the New York Newsday: Rickey Henderson, Bert Blyleven, Alen Trammell, Tim Raines.
Davidoff’s ballot has been evolving in the last few years, it’s worth a read to see his thought process. This really stood out to show how people can learn more/change their minds upon further investigation year-to-year:
I’d like to think I tried my darndest on my 2008 ballot. But I nearly gagged when I read this passage:
Jack Morris: His numbers might not stand out among the all-time greats, and this is a vote on which I could change in the future. Right now, I view him as the best of his time period (1977-94). The last starting pitcher to get voted in on the BBWAA ballot, interestingly, was Nolan Ryan in 1999. Morris deserves it, in my mind, because his innings pitched (3,824) back up his reputation as a workhorse; because his 254 wins reflect the fact that he hung around games for so many decisions; and because of his postseason excellence. Yes.
If I could get my hands on a DeLorean and some plutonium, I would go back to Dec. 20, 2007 and smack ’07 Davidoff upside the head, like 2015 Biff did to 1955 Biff in “Back to the Future Part II.” Citing pitchers’ wins and a postseason record which is not as good as advertised? Oy vey.
A year ago, I’m not even sure I fully understood OPS+ and ERA+. Now, they are staples of my analytical diet. Perhaps I will be using more sophisticated tools a year from now.
The bad is that he buys into the purity of the game thing for McGwire but I imagine that too will change in time.
Jim Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post: Rickey Henderson, Bert Blyleven, Andrew Dawson, Tommy John.
Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle: Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire, Don Mattingly.
His article is titled “Stats? Go with gut when voting for Hall”, and is by far the worst round-up I’ve read since Heyman’s amazing piece last year. A must read, here is my favorite part:
Jack Morris: Defined the type of toughness lacking in so many starting pitchers today. He would have laughed at pitch counts, had they existed. Big winner who finished games (133 times) and was especially good in the postseason. Yes. And I’d love to see a “no” voter try to look Morris in the eye.
Mr Jenkins, if you provide me with a step-ladder and Jack Morris, I will tell him I would never give him a Hall of Fame vote.
Sean McClelland of the Dayton Daily News: Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven.
January 4 Update
Corky Simpson of the Tuscon Citizen: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Tim Raines, Jim Rice, Alan Trammell, Matt Williams.
Murray Chass of his Absolutely Not A Blog: Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Rickey Henderson.
Chicago Tribune Writers–link goes to their individual reasoning:
Mark Gonzales: Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice.
Teddy Greenstein: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Don Mattingly, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
Phil Hersh: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Don Mattingly, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell.
Dan McGrath: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice.
Fred Mitchell: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tommy John, Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
Phil Rogers: Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell.
Paul Sullivan: Harold Baines, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Lee Smith.
Dave Van Dyck: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tommy John, Lee Smith.
Bob Verdi: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
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Phew, that’s a lot of writers.
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Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star: Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Dale Murphy Tommy John, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, Mark McGwire.
Jeff Jacobs of the Hartford Courant: Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice.
January 5 Update
Rick Telander of the Chicago Sun-Times: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Tommy John.
January 6 Update
Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News: Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, Andre Dawson, Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven.
Carter Gaddis (retired, still has a BBWAA ballot): Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Tommy John, Dale Murphy, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
Filip Bondy of the NY Daily News: Rickey Henderson. Apparently he is offended that people like Blyleven played for too many teams because that must mean they were never very extremely good.
Jose De Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle: Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Tommy John and Dale Murphy.
Joe Henderson of the Tampa Tribune: Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Andre Dawson, Tommy John, Jim Rice.
January 9 Update
Garry Brown of the Republican: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tommy John.
Jack McCaffery of the Deleware County Daily Times: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tommy John, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
Steve Aschburner of MinnPost.com: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell.
Mike Nadel of the Galesburg Register-Mail: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice.
Phil Pepe of MLB.com: Bert Blyleven, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice.
Phil Arvia of the Southtown Star: Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jim Rice, Lee Smith. Added bonus OBP insanity rant to justify Dawson.
Jim Hawkins of the Oakland Press: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Jack Morris Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jim Rice, Alan Trammell.
January 11 Update
Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Jim Rice, Lee Smith.
Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe: Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice.
Marc Topkin of Tampa Bay Online: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Mark McGwire, Lee Smith. This guy’s reasoning is my NIGHTMARE. Go check it out.
Richard Griffen of the Toronto Star: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Jim Rice.
January 12 Update
Steve Wilmoth of TriCitiesSports.com: Andre Dawson, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice.
Bert Blyleven is another who received an upswing of support last year. The Dutchman managed but 14% support back in his second year on the ballot in 1999 but was up to 61.9% in 2008. Blyleven is fifth on the all-time strikeout list [3701] and 27th on the all-time wins list [287]. His 60 shutouts rank 9th all-time. Despite those lofty numbers, Blyleven made only two all-star teams and topped the league in the three major pitching categories [Wins, ERA, Strikeouts] only once – 206 K’s in 1985.
Do people look this stuff up before they write it and see who the other people on the lists are? OH NO BERT STRUCK OUT LESS PEOPLE IN 1974 THAN NOLAN RYAN!!! Seriously the utter lack of putting things into perspective is astounding. Additionally there are plenty of pitchers who perform one or two seasons at an elite level and then die (like Frank Tanana), and people like Blyleven who maintain an elite status over the course of 15+ years should not be punished because of that.
[...] searching around the internet for votes I missed in my big old round-up I came across Mr Corky [...]
[...] In case you’ve missed it: Here’s where you can find all the votes I’ve found. [...]
You missed a player on Posnanski’s ballot: Mark McGwire.
Thank you, I’ve updated it
The writers of ESPN.com just posted their Hall of Fame ballot!
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof09/news/story?id=3819625
[...] up (thank you ajnrules)! There are 11 of them, so here’s a seperate post. The spreadsheet and megapost will be are updated [...]
Excellent, thank you!!