I am really fond of Chien-Ming Wang, as I think most Yankees fans who are not insane generally are. He’s the first starting pitcher the Yankees system has produced that has stayed with them since Andy Pettitte and he puzzles projection systems because he doesn’t strike out a lot of people (but he has very good peripherals because he doesn’t walk a lot either). There’s a lot to love about a guy who gets groundballs at the rate Wang does.
My concern is that he won’t be able to sustain his groundball rates. It’s a minor concern, it’s probably unfounded but they have been dropping:
| Season | Team | GB/FB | LD% | GB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Yankees | 2.91 | 14.1 % | 63.9 % | 22.0 % |
| 2006 | Yankees | 3.09 | 16.9 % | 62.8 % | 20.3 % |
| 2007 | Yankees | 2.51 | 18.3 % | 58.4 % | 23.3 % |
| 2008 | Yankees | 2.41 | 22.1 % | 55.0 % | 22.8 % |
2005 was a smallish sample size, but he carried the groundball rate over to 2006 pretty well. What was probably unsustainable there was the linedrive rate. For pitchers you usually expect a LD% around 20%, although fellow groundball freak Derek Lowe finds his at about the 16% mark each year. I don’t think Wang’s rate will drop back down to 16% but it should at least drop to 20% if nothing horrible happens. If that translates into a higher groundball percentage that would be awesome, if he doesn’t it’s a little sad because it could mean more homeruns which would be bad. His HR/FB rate has always been a bit low from where you expect to find it (6-8% instead of 10%) so this could happen anyway.
The other “I hope this is not a problem” thing that popped up about him for me while scouring his Fangraphs page is this information from his pitch type information:
| Season | Team | FB | SL | CT | CH | SF | XX | PO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 76.4% (92.5) | 15.3% (85.0) | 0.0% (88.0) | 5.4% (81.3) | 2.9% (85.9) | 1.2% | 0.5% | |
| 2005 | Yankees | 77.9% (92.0) | 12.9% (85.4) | 0.1% (88.0) | 7.5% (82.6) | 1.6% (85.9) | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 2006 | Yankees | 75.5% (93.1) | 14.7% (85.6) | 4.5% (82.1) | 5.3% (85.8) | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2007 | Yankees | 76.4% (92.7) | 16.2% (83.9) | 6.2% (79.9) | 1.2% (86.6) | 0.8% | 0.5% | |
| 2008 | Yankees | 77.0% (91.8) | 17.1% (85.4) | 3.5% (80.5) | 2.5% (85.6) | 1.5% | 0.4% |
Where’s the velocity going? Again, 2008 was an abbreviated season but that’s a three year trend and somewhat of a concern to me. But if he can keep the sink going and keep it around 90-92 I don’t see a real problem. Just a minor thing, like the rest.
The thing is, minor concerns all build up and turn into something big. We saw Wang having some control issues from time-to-time last year. Will those continue? That would be a big deal, although his strikeout numbers were on the rise too.
I really, really hope Wang continues to be as above-average as he has been, and I think he can do it. I’m just not as sure or confident as I was about it last year.
