Chien-Ming Wang's release points, 05-27

Compare to his last start. It moved a little bit horizontally and down just a tad. It seems to very slowly be getting back to where it was vertically Pre May 2008 (or I could be just hopefully projecting based on tiny sample sizes–but I will be an optimist for once). Horizontally it is still very different from old Wang.

And the movement comparison:

So between the two starts, he was throwing a bit softer tonight but got a slightly (like half an inch to an inch) better vertical break on the pitch. It did lose quite a bit of the horizontal movement.

Here’s an example from one of his best (groundball related) starts for even more comparison:

The vertical break doesn’t compare to what he was getting when he made even the strongest men groundout weakly.

And for the ultimate comparison, here’s one from a disaster start this season:

So it is, in fact, sinking a bit more now than in the extremely bad times. And he’s throwing it a tad faster. Baby steps, extremely small sample sizes and all that but still it’s somewhat encouraging. I just wish he could be doing this in AAA at his own pace rather than MLB when the team can afford to sneak him in and maybe even throwing more than 20-40 pitches at a time.

Chien-Ming Wang's Release Points - 05/22/09

And now, here they are here it is from a stinker he pitched before getting put on the Disabled List:

Chien-Ming Wang's Release Points - 04/18/09

Wang’s release point hasn’t changed since the last time we saw him, which now makes me extra concerned that it was in fact an intentional change.  The horizontal release point is more similar to what it was when he was successful, but it’s still a big chunk higher up.

I really wish I could find out more about why his release point was changed and the thinking behind it. It might be because the pitching coaches think that throwing it straight overhand will give it a better sink, but as anyone who has been watching knows–it ain’t working.

So, here’s a table with the data from his first three appearances. I’ve included the data from his dominating Opening Day start in 2008 to compare.

I guess it’s slightly better in a vacuum compared to the awful from the first two starts, but it’s nothing compared to his killer sinker/fastball from 2006/2007/early 2008.

If you want to read a detailed analysis of what has changed with Wang, check out this post on RAB. The summary is: Last May, for some reason, his release point changed and he lost a great deal of both the horizontal and vertical break on his pitches as well as some speed. If you think back to last season, this makes sense. He was pretty killer for the first month and a half (though he had a stinker or two) and then all of a sudden started churning out a bunch of really bad starts and the good ones were the rarity.

It’s unclear why Wang’s release point changed. I did some digging around and I found a few articles where Dave Eiland talks about wanting him to throw more over the top but nothing solid. If it was an intentional move by Eiland, that’s pretty troubling since all signs point to this new release point being the issue. Especially when you consider that Wang was kicking ass before the change.

There’s not much they can do now since Giardi, Eiland and Wang all said he’s not hurt so they can’t use that as an excuse to put him through “rehab”. I honestly think that was a pretty foolish decision as it’s clear this is not something that is going to be worked out against the best hitters in the world, and every time he goes out there it hurts him more importantly, the team. Additionally, if it was an intentional change they’re not going to look to have him release from a less “over the top” point than before. I think Wang can be put right, I’m just doubtful it will happen with this team the way things are going.

Anyway, for the third straight game Chien-Ming Wang was awful. He looked pretty good in the first, not great, but okay. Then in the second, as soon as there was a runner on base he completely fell apart. Now Wang has never been great out of the stretch but he just looked terrible.

(To pick Claggett to try and keep the game under control was a bit mind-boggling, but that’s a personal gripe.)

It is clear right now that Wang’s problems are not something that can be worked out in the Major Leagues. I don’t believe you go from good to awful this quick and that he can still come back from it, but not if they keep putting him out here and hoping he’s made the proper adjustments to his mechanics. Since he can’t easily be optioned to AAA (he would have to pass through waivers and for sure there would be a team to pick him up), the best way for the team to accomplish this is to come up with a phantom injury like a blister, put him on the DL and send him to the Tampa facility. After today, I don’t really see how they don’t do this and call up either Ian Kennedy or Alfredo Aceves to take his place.

While you might clamor for Phil Hughes, I think that would be a bad choice since he’s been having some trouble throwing his curveball for strikes. AAA batters were sitting on it the other night, which means he needs to get that down before he comes back. Aceves is who I would pick as he is as complete as he will ever be, and the team has much less invested in him. I believe he can easily be an average MLB starter and fill in pretty well.

In closing, I vote for Girardi to put Veras in to pitch the rest of the game. I mean, why not? He’s useless anyway.

4/1/08 versus Toronto

4/13/09 versus Tampa

(Thanks go to Brooks Baseball for the fancy graphs)

This is the kind of thing that, normally, you would look to resolve in rehab starts in the Minor Leagues and at the team complex in Tampa. I know he didn’t look good in Spring Training either but the focus is different there from when you’re on an actual rehab trip. So with that out there I think that, if Wang does not improve a bit during this outing he’ll magically come down with some kind of minor injury that requires a trip to the DL. It would be really tough on both him and the team to try and work out these issues while he’s on the Major League roster.

Do I think he’s gone all Dontrelle Willis on us? No, because unlike Willis, Wang never depended on a funky delivery to get balls by batters and he’s not experiencing the extreme lack of command Willis did. Yeah he’s having problems hitting his spots and getting his pitches exactly where they should go, but Willis was pretty close to an Ankiel-style meltdown.

And let’s not forget that there are a lot of guys out there having a rough start, it’s just easy to focus on Wang’s because he’s close to home and it honestly has been worse than the other victims.

1. The most important thing is that Chien-Ming Wang still looked uncomfortable on the mound and not used to pitching. He didn’t have his best stuff, he couldn’t locate anything. In other words, he was really bad. Something is wrong with him mechanically right now and unless he gets a phantom injury it means bad news until that gets straightened out.
2. The Ump behind the plate (Tony Randazzo–I’m not going to forget that name!) was calling a very tight zone for both pitchers. Wang was missing his spots by a ton, but he wasn’t helped out any here. This is fine, but everything that was the tiniest bit borderline was a ball. It happens, next time he’s got to make his pitches.
3. Scott Kazmir was completely 100% locked in. He looked amazing. The Yankees lineup for the most part simply could not touch him. When they did hit balls well off him, they got gobbled up by BJ Upton and Carl Crawford in the outfield.
4. Jonathan Albaladejo took the “throw a strike” thing too literally and threw a mega meatball to Carlos Pena which put the game totally out of reach early on.
5. The bullpen is now dead. Albaladejo, Edwar, Coke all threw too many pitches to be available for a few days. David Robertson is kicking amazing amounts of ass at SWB (last night he went 3IP, gave up a hit and a walk and struck out 7) but wouldn’t be available to pitch today. Bring on Mark Melancon.
6. The infield defense made me want to cry. You can’t lose popups in the ceiling like that. I find myself excusing Robinson Cano’s error because I’m not exactly sure how he was supposed to catch the ball with Ramiro Pena up against him like that. Bad communication there, boys.

I might as well touch on the few things that went right to avoid killing myself in despair (or at least be very sad today):

1. Nick Swisher is the most awesome person to ever live and play baseball. Here is the proof.
2. Edwar Ramirez looked pretty good. He should never have to go for two so I’ll forgive the homerun. I excuse the other hit because it wasn’t even hit hard (and was hit by Evan Longoria who is pretty unstoppable right now).
3. The Mets lost on a run balked in.

My concern is that he won’t be able to sustain his groundball rates. It’s a minor concern, it’s probably unfounded but they have been dropping:

2005 was a smallish sample size, but he carried the groundball rate over to 2006 pretty well. What was probably unsustainable there was the linedrive rate. For pitchers you usually expect a LD% around 20%, although fellow groundball freak Derek Lowe finds his at about the 16% mark each year. I don’t think Wang’s rate will drop back down to 16% but it should at least drop to 20% if nothing horrible happens. If that translates into a higher groundball percentage that would be awesome, if he doesn’t it’s a little sad because it could mean more homeruns which would be bad. His HR/FB rate has always been a bit low from where you expect to find it (6-8% instead of 10%) so this could happen anyway.

The other “I hope this is not a problem” thing that popped up about him for me while scouring his Fangraphs page is this information from his pitch type information:

Where’s the velocity going? Again, 2008 was an abbreviated season but that’s a three year trend and somewhat of a concern to me. But if he can keep the sink going and keep it around 90-92 I don’t see a real problem. Just a minor thing, like the rest.

The thing is, minor concerns all build up and turn into something big. We saw Wang having some control issues from time-to-time last year. Will those continue? That would be a big deal, although his strikeout numbers were on the rise too.

I really, really hope Wang continues to be as above-average as he has been, and I think he can do it. I’m just not as sure or confident as I was about it last year.

Chien-Ming Wang – 3IP, 3H, 1R, 1HR, 0BB, 2K, 5GO, 2AO

Today marked Chien-Ming Wang’s second start of the Spring. He was slated to throw 40 pitches, and threw just under that. There were a few bumps along the way but he looked like he was getting into thigns overall. While Dave Eiland said he would be mostly working on the sinker today, he threw a bunch of sliders and a splitter.

The sinker is starting to sink (check out the GO: AO ratio there) and his breaking pitches are getting there. He threw a very nice slider to K Kelly Johnson but then the next at-bat he a bad changeup that just hung there and Casey Kotchman hammered it out for a homerun. The lone splitter he threw was a killer that Josh Anderson was completely fooled by. That came in the third inning.

Interesting note: if you check out pitch F/X, you’ll see that the overwhelming majority of homeruns Wang has given up over the last few years are on changeups he leaves up in the zone.

Brett Tomko – 3IP, 1H, 1R, 1HR, 0BB, 3K, 3GO, 3AO

A man of little significance. Unless horrible disasters happen, he is not making the team.

Phil Coke – 1IP, 2H, 1R, 0BB, 0K, 1GO, 2AO

Kept up the pattern of Yankees pitchers giving up solo homeruns today. Other than that, uneventful. I know some people see him as a favorite to make the bullpen, but I think the Yankees want to give him one last shot as a starter. Remember that average starters are infinitely more important than relievers, and lefty starters that can be even league average are more important than righties.

Kanekoa Texeira – .1IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 0K, 1GO, 1AO

Only faced two batters. Almost followed the solo-homerun pattern of the day but it wound up falling in for a double. Yanked after a groundout put the runner on third with one out.

Wilkin De La Rosa – .2IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 0K, 1GO, 1AO

De La Rosa is young and left-handed. The Yankees don’t really have many pitchers that throw with their left arm, though they do have a number of young pitchers. He was converted from outfield to pitcher in 2007, and like a lot of conversions he has some command problems. He did post good numbers for the Yankees in the minors last year, so he’s someone to keep an eye on in 2009 as he has a good ceiling. Unlikely to reach it, but it’s there.

He came out, got an infield chopper that stranded the runner at third. Followed that up by walking a batter and then got a somewhat nerve-wracking long fly out to left to wrap up his outing.

Michael Dunn – 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 1K, 0GO, 2AO

Another one of these elusive young lefties, Dunn spent last year at Tampa where he put up good K/9 numbers. He’s got a decent 4-seam fastball.

Other Notes

Xavier Nady is continuing to hand the Right Field job over to Nick Swisher, which is okay with me. He’s been looking somewhat bewildered at the plate, it’s almost like his season last year was an aberration.

Chien-Ming Wang - 2.0IP, 2H, 0R, 0HR, 0BB, 0K, 2GO, 4AO

I really do not like that GO: AO ratio, but I’m not going to worry about it yet.

Brett Tomko – 2.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1HR, 1BB, 2K, 4GO, 1AO

Anthony Claggett – 2.0IP, 1H, 1R, 1HR, 0BB, 1K, 3GO, 3AO

Wilkin De La Rosa – 1.0IP, 1H, 0R, 0HR, 0BB, 1K, 0GO, 2AO

George Kontos – 0.1IP, 3H, 3R, 0HR, 1BB, 1K

Rough outing for Kontos, but he isn’t fighting for a job with the Major League team anyway. He’ll be starting off at Scranton Wilkes-Barre this year probably.

Steven Jackson - 1.2IP, 3H, 0R, 1K, 2GO, 2AO

Jackson had two inherited runners, one of which scored.

Other Notes

Posada was back in the lineup as DH today after being scratched last game. Went 1 for 3.

The character is his name.