It’s funny because when you compare the 2009 Nationals roster to the 1962 Mets or 2003 Tigers you are struck by how not terrible it is in comparison. Three genuinely good players? That’s more than those teams had combined.

Adam Dunn destroys right-handed pitching and hates baseballs so much he hits them very long distances away from where he’s standing. Ryan Zimmerman is finally putting it all together. Nick Johnson (sniff sniff) is not hurt right now and hitting the way you expect him to when he’s healthy, minus a bit of power.

The rest of the offense is mediocre, sure. But in a vacuum it’s hard to see how they are playing less than .300 ball just looking at that. The answer is they have worse pitching than even the Baltimore Orioles. Here are the numbers for every pitcher they’ve run out there this year:

Ouch. I mean, yeah the Yankees raw numbers don’t look all that much better at first glance but they’ve been improving and there’s room for more improvement. The Nationals rotation isn’t even completely horrible. John Lannan is what he is–averageish–and Jordan Zimmermann is a guy who is going to improve. Shairon Martis has a bit of room for improvement, and if Scott Olsen is ever not hurt he should put up at least average numbers.

What we have here is a completely terrible bullpen. It had Kip Wells in it before he got hurt and they intentionally added Mike MacDougal. Ron Villone looks good on the surface but then you look past the ERA and see that he’s walked more than he’s struck out.  Oh and you remember that he’s Ron Villone and wince with the memories of him taking the mound for the Yankees.

I mean, they just signed Horacio Ramirez to improve it and he probably will. Yes, it’s a minor league deal but I’m sure he’ll be up soon enough.

The patched together pitching staff is not helped out at all by the defense, of course. Fangraphs even wrote up a post about it–”The Nationals are Poor at Run Prevention” (summary: It’s been ugly, but some players are under performing). The pitchers will find some relief in this series, though, since Adam Dunn is indubitably going to be given DH duties (unless Manny Acta wants to go out with a bang and DH Corey Patterson or something–I would not complain).

So, while the Yankees should theoretically destroy the Nationals there is some concern about how the pitching staff will perform. Here are the match-ups:

Tuesday, June 16th: Shairon Martis (RHP) vs CC Sabathia (LHP)
CC looked pretty awesome for most of his last start, and the only reason he didn’t have a real quality start was because he was left in to hang when he started to look cooked (this is a recurring theme that will hopefully fix itself as the bullpen continues to improve). He is left-handed which gives him an advantage over the Adam Dunns of the world, but if he leaves something up it’s going to the moon (ask Johan Santana). Sharion Martis has an okay fastball with solid secondary offerings. He started 5-0 which excited some people, but he’s pretty much an average guy.

Wednesday, June 17th: John Lannan (LHP) vs Chien-Ming Wang (RHP)
God help us all if Wang leaves anything up. That is all.

Thursday, June 18th: Craig Stammen (RHP) vs Joba Chamberlain (RHP)
I’ve got no insight on Stammen beyond his numbers, but I do know if the Joba who showed up on June 12th and May 26th shows up that it is not going to be a pretty game to watch.

Friday, April 24th
Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06ERA, 1.50WHIP) vs Jon Lester (1-2, 5.5ERA, 1.444WHIP)

Joba could absolutely not find the strike zone his last game out. That happens sometimes, but he really needs to recover as Jon Lester is the only left-handed pitcher in the universe who does better at Fenway than other parks.

Saturday, April 25th
AJ Burnett (2-0, 3.20ERA, 1.119WHIP) vs Josh Beckett (2-1, 3.79ERA, 1.316WHIP)

Burnett was also stricken with the “help I can’t throw strikes” sickness in his last start, but he still put together a good start. He walked 7 batters which is really, really bad but had Joe Girardi not put him out for a seventh inning of work Burnett would have ended the day with “only” 4. (Note to Joe: Stop putting starters back out like this, please!)  Beckett hasn’t been an unstoppable force of nature or anything, but he’s an excellent pitcher as usual.

Sunday, April 26th
Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.53ERA, .938WHIP) vs Justin Masterson (1-0, 1.59ERA, 1.235WHIP)

Old versus young. Andy’s been doing well, as I’m sure all readers of this particular blog know, but he has never done well in Fenway and it is a park that is not very friendly to LHP. Masterson got stretched very quickly to starting after Daisuke Matsuzaka came down with a case of the sucks (just like our very own Chien-Ming Wang), and did okay in his first start. I don’t really think he has the stuff to be a starter for a long time, but you never know with a guy who depends on a good sinker.

Andy’s looked pretty good against some tough offensive teams so far, and this will be his first start at the New Yankee Stadium (if it happens, the weather isn’t looking so hot). He is sadly probably due for a bad (or at least less good) start, he is not as good as the numbers are showing right now (hello .208 BABIP). Dana Eveland could be an averageish pitcher if he cut down on his walk rate. He’s had one good outing and one bad outing this year and is the kind of pitcher who benefits greatly from the A’s defense.

Tuesday, April 21st
CC Sabathia (1-1, 1.642WHIP, 3.57ERA) vs Brett Anderson (0-2, 1.231WHIP, 4.85)

Brett Anderson is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, a lefty who throws low 90s. It was somewhat of a surprise to see him and Trevor Cahill (another one of baseball’s top pitching prospects) make the A’s rotation out of Spring Training but that’s how things go sometimes. He gets groundballs and an excellent slow curveball. CC Sabathia’s had one bad start, one meh start, and one quite good start so far. How will this one go? It’s a mystery, but hopefully more like the second than the third.

Wednesday, April 22nd
Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 1.185WHIP, 2.40ERA) vs Josh Outman (0-0, 1.735WHIP, 3.05ERA)

Joba really struggled to throw strikes in his second start after being pretty solid against the Royals. We all know Joba’s got the stuff to dominate he just has to get it under control, now. Josh Outman is just kind of filler in the A’s rotation for the time being. He walks almost as many as he strikes out, which is always a recipe for bad.

Thursday, April 16th
CC Sabathia vs Cliff Lee

Everybody panicked after CC’s first start but he did a pretty excellent job bouncing back from that. Now we’ll see how it goes against a slightly better lineup. Cliff Lee has been crashing down to Earth after his Cy Young season at a rapid speed. His control isn’t as pin-point as it was and he’s paying for it. I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s seemed, but I also don’t believe the “real” Cliff Lee is the one we saw last year. I don’t expect him to just roll over, I think the Yankees wwill have to fight it out for runs here especially wit Xavier Ndy who hits lefties very well on the DL.

Friday, April 17th
Joba Chamberlain vs Anthony Reyes

Joba is a starter, things are the way they should be. He pitched well in his first start of the season, though he was using too many pitches at times against a pretty weak lineup. Still, he put together a quality start so I’m not going to nitpick too much. Anthony Reyes is likely a solid-average pitcher, the Indians acquired him from St Louis who had pretty much given up on him/didn’t like him/etc.

Saturday, April 18th
Chien-Ming Wang vs Fausto Carmona

The battle of the struggling sinker ballers. The Yankees have been having Wang throw a lot to try and get his rhyhtm back but who knows. This is probably his last chance to show improvement before he develops a mystery injury so he can work things out at a lower level of competition. Carmona’s been having a “throw strikes” problem himself, though his problems are different from Wang’s. He had an injury as well last year but it 1) Was pitching related; 2) Didn’t put him out as long as Wang so his explosion is more of a mystery.

Sunday, April 19th
AJ Burnett vs Carl Pavano

This one is the battle of the oft-injured pitchers, though to be fair to Burnett he does not get injured at anywhere near the same rate as Pavano. He has also been extremely good this season so far, much better than I anticipated. I still hate Burnett’s contract but I can’t argue with the results so far. Of course, he could slam his hand in a car door again tomorrow and my opinion could change very quickly.

In any case, here are the matchups:

Monday, April 13
Chien-Ming Wang (0-1, 17.18ERA) vs Scott Kazmir (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

I love early season ERAs. Just look at them. One is horrifying and the other is beautiful. Neither will last. Wang does worse on the road than he does at home, especially on turf given his groundball nature. Kazmir can be very very good–acelike, even–but often uses too many pitches and can get pushed out of games after the 5th. With Teix’s wrist hurting when he bats righty (meaning he won’t play), this game is probably a wash.

Tuesday, April 14
AJ Burnett (1-0, 3.38 ERA) vs Matt Garza (1-0 1.29 ERA)

The Twins shipped Matt Garza off to Tampa because they were sick of his once a game baby hissy fits. This is unfortunate for them because he is a very high quality pitcher. AJ Burnett is who he is, and some of that is being inconsistent. The Yankees will need good Burnett to show up, and for Garza’s one bad inning to be pretty bad to take this game.

Wednesday, April 15
Andy Pettitte (1-0, 1.29ERA) vs Andy Sonnanstine (0-1, 9.64ERA)

Two solid #4 pitchers, here. Sonnanstine broke through last year, he doesn’t have anything overpowering in his pitch repretoire but doesn’t walk anyone (a useful skill I wish could be passed onto AJ Burnett). If not-horrible Andy shows up, this has a chance to be a very close exciting game for Jose Veras to blow/turn into a blowout.

Friday, April 10th
Andy Pettitte (NR) vs Sidney Ponson (NR)

Andy’s first start of the year. He faced the Royals a few times last year and did not do very well against them. The Kansas City lineup he faces this year is of about the same quality, though with more punch and less “getting on base”. He often starts slow, however, and who knows how his shoulder is really feeling. Sidney Ponson, quite frankly, sucks. But he does use black magic BABIP voodoo and sometimes pulls out what looks like a good start on the surface. The Royals don’t have a very good defense, though, so if the Yankees can keep the ball away from Coco Crisp and David DeJesus they may score some runs!

Saturday, April 11th
Joba Chamberlain (NR) vs Horacio Ramirez (NR)

If there is a starter out there worse than Sidney Ponson, it is Horacio Ramirez. He is a truly awful pitcher and I’m not really sure why the Royals decided to keep him on the roster instead of Brian Bannister or Luke  Hochevar. Joba’s first start of the season will hopefully be better than his Spring Training outings, or Sabathia and Wang’s first starts. He could benefit from the fact that there are only like two people in the Kansas City lineup who like taking a free base.

Sunday, April 12th
CC Sabathia (0-1, 12.46) vs Gil Meche (1-0, 1.29)

Sabathia and Meche had opposite outings last time. Meche put up a gem (7IP, 7H, 1R, 0BB, 7K) against the White Sox, where CC absolutely imploded against the Orioles. I’m not going to retread the happenings in that game, so I’ll just say that I find it hard to believe CC could be worse than he was last time.

Monday, April 6th
CC Sabathia (NR) vs Jeremy Guthrie (NR)

Jeremy Guthrie is the only known not terrible entity in the 2009 Orioles rotation. While he wouldn’t be a #1 on a team with any pitching at all, he is a pretty solid pitcher. CC Sabathia is a tall fat dude who put in a lot of innings over the last two years. He started out slowly last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened again. I am eagerly anticipating people screaming that he is a a super bust contract five minutes into this start.

Wednesday, April 8th
Chien-Ming Wang (NR) vs Koji Uehara (NR)

Chien-Ming Wang didn’t look so hot in Spring Training after pitching for the first time after his foot injury. His success relies, as always, on not walking a lot of guys and groundouts. The worrying signs in Spring Training were that his groundball numbers were not as high as you expect. I don’t really put much weight into those numbers, but he’s been on a long layoff and it might take him some time to get back into the groove. Koji Uehara will be making his first MLB start. An effective pitcher for most of his NPB career, Uehara signed with the Orioles as they were one of only two teams that really seemed interested in giving him a shot in the rotation. I figure he will be about league average for Baltimore, maybe a little worse or better. He has some injury concerns.

Thursday, April 9th
A.J. Burnett (NR) vs Alfredo Simon (NR)

AJ Burnett will probably have some freak injury as he is walking to the mound to do his warmup pitches. I don’t even know who Alfredo Simon is but his minor league numbers on The Baseball Cube are not very enticing. Orioles pitching rules.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t really mean much unless they take at least 2 out of 3 against the Red Sox so let’s take a look at the pitching matchups there:

Tuesday, August 26th
Andy Pettitte (13-9, 4.17ERA, 1.344WHIP) vs Tim Wakefield (7-8, 3.67ERA, 1.177WHIP)

This game could easily go either way, as experienced Yankee fans know there are two versions of Andy: Really good or really bad. There is rarely anything in between. The same is true for Tim Wakefield.

Wednesday, August 27th
Sidney Ponson (7-4, 4.67ERA, 1.585WHIP) vs Paul Byrd (8-11, 4.39ERA, 1.303WHIP)

Sidney Ponson is pretty putrid, and Paul Byrd isn’t all that bad but he gives up a lot of homeruns which could work in the Yankees favor if they take their time with him.

Thursday, August 28th
Mike Mussina (16-7, 3.45ERA, 1.211WHIP) vs Jon Lester (12-5, 3.49ERA, 1.318WHIP)

Mussina was screwed by the Yankees’ amazing outfield defense the other night (he should have had a quality start but Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon were having none of that) and looked okay against the tough Baltimore offense even though he didn’t have his best stuff. Jon Lester has really come around this year, and has been very tough on the Yankees but had a bad last start so the team should hope he’s tired or something.

Outlook: All of these matchups could easily go either way, I am a downer though and don’t see the Yankees taking 2 out of 3 here.

The Orioles–out of nowhere, with people like Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora and Luke Scott all performing very well–have something like the third best offense in the AL. Mussina’s had some trouble with them this year, and I expect this to continue at Camden. Radhames Liz kind of sucks, which means the Yankees will flail like little babies at every pitch he throws and produce no runs.

Saturday, August 23rd
Carl Pavano (0-0, 0ERA, 0WHIP–that was fun to type) vs Jeremy Guthrie (10-9, 3.15ERA, 1.164WHIP)

Carl Pavano is pitching in a game, for the Yankees, in 2008. What else needs to be said?

Sunday, August 24th
Darrell Rasner (5-9, 4.93ERA, 1.459WHIP) vs Daniel Cabrera (8-8, 4.98ERA, 1.512WHIP)

Daniel Cabrera has had his problems, but this year he has been rocksolid against the Yankees, who managed to lose a game in which Rasner only allowed one run a few days ago.

Burnett’s numbers are deceiving because he always kills the Yankees. Then again, so does Darrell Rasner.

Wednesday, August 20th
Andy Pettitte (12-9, 4.30ERA, 1.371WHIP) vs David Purcey (2-3, 5.93ERA, 1.451WHIP)

Oh look, a subpar LHP in David Purcey. I know how this will end.

Thursday, August 21st
Sidney Ponson (7-3, 4.20ERA, 1.5WHIP) vs Roy Halladay (14-9, 2.64ERA, 1.042WHIP)

Remember when I said Rasner vs Lackey was the most lopsided pitching matchup I’d seen in a long time? This one is worse. Yeah, Ponson’s strung together some good starts but his BABIP is way below the norm. In any case, if the world were fair Halladay would win the Cy Young this year so there really isn’t much hope.